How is climate changing us?

Early 21st Century projections ascribed the greatest rates of water withdrawals to Africa (Arnell et al., 2001). However, these did not account for withdrawals under a changing climate which may increase rainfall. The adverse climate change impacts exacerbate threats to African food insecurity, particularly given the continent's hydrological requirements and limited coping mechanisms (Niang et al., 2014). Climate resilience and water and sanitation are and will continue to be essential themes for sustainable development. 

Changing inflows to endorheic lakes, like Tanganyika or Malawi, can have substantial effects, already observed in the Aral Sea or in the Great Salt Lake. Single short-term increases in inflows to exoreic lakes, such as Lake Victoria, have been seen to cause rising levels over several years (Arnell et al., 2001). Consequences could offset the nutrient balance and affect the trophic chain. Direct anthropogenic impacts such as overfishing, pollution and introduction of invasive species, would only aggravate the situation (Niang et al., 2014). In turn, humans would be impacted, for example, through lowered productivity of the fishing industry. Moreover, inland fisheries ought to be more vulnerable due to water stress, drought and destruction, while the modification of oceanic currents will impact those in the coast (Desanker and Magadza, 2021). 

Rising water levels in Lake Victoria, pictured in May 2013 (left) and in May 2021 (right) (Stevens, 2021)

Flooded areas will imply loss of land destroying homes, livelihoods and food resources. Inconsistent variability in access to water will affect livestock, whose drinking water is critical yet a minimal quantity in comparison to the water needed to produce their feed. In Botswana, the cost to supply livestock from boreholes is estimated to grow by 23% by 2050 (Masike and Urich, 2009). Warming climates will probably modify growing seasons and reduce yields for major African crops. The latter was estimated to amount to -22% in Sub-Saharan Africa, with notable national estimates for South Africa and Zimbabwe which surpass 30% (Niang et al., 2014). 

Relatively few studies have been conducted to assess climatic changes in Africa (Arnell et al., 2001). The continent's climatic diversity, high rainfall variability and sparse observational networks limit accurate predictions at subregional and local levels. However, the extreme North and South of Africa are recognised as areas more prone to drought, thus raising greater concern (Niang et al., 2014). A climatic trend that was closely monitored was the rainfall pattern in the Sahel. Around the 1960s, annual rainfall dramatically declined and only slightly recovered at the end of the century. Nevertheless, the original characteristics of the wet season have changed to more intense and intermittent patterns over different timings and duration (Biasutti et al., 2008). During the drought, grazing was rendered unviable leading to a large-scale famine which triggered external aid, creating the International Fund for Agricultural Development (We Are Water Foundation, 2019). This case study illustrates the consequences that may be triggered by future lack of water on food security, emigration and hydroelectric capacity. Malin Falkenmark (1989), who was already mentioned on a previous blog entry, stressed the impossibility to reach political goals, such as self-sufficiency in food production and general socioeconomic development, under conditions of severe water scarcity. An increase in food prices aggravates food insecurity and will place at risk an estimated additional 30,000 to 50,000 children in Sub-Saharan Africa (Niang et al., 2014).

 

After Biasutti et al. (2008), mean summer standardized anomalies in rainfall totals and number of rainy days averaged in the region 10ºN-20ºN and. 20ºW-30ºE 

It cannot be forgotten that there are still abundant resources in Africa which may be used to address adaptations to the changing climate (Desanker and Magadza, 2021). Two major improvement areas for adaptation strategies are recognised; firstly, there is an urge to accelerate acclimatisation in the sight of advancing environmental changes and secondly, risk management must be improved for variability and extreme events. Subsequently, to maintain food security possible fields for adaptation involve modifying location and distribution of agricultural types, selecting new heat-tolerant produce and expanding production of known current heat-tolerant varieties. Moreover, in this search for improved climate change resilience, the most pivotal adaptations might be hidden in water storage (IWMI, 2009). 

The dreadful impacts of climate change are present and ready to offset. Specifically, the agricultural sector demonstrates excessive vulnerability to even a mild model of temperature increase, affected by changes to timing and amount of rainfall as well as temperatures (Vermeulen et al., 2012). It may seem as pure doom and gloom, incapable of changing its fate. However, there are opportunities to change the current trends and mechanisms to cope with what is already here. The essential item is that action is taken to study feasible improvements and that the sufficient adaptation tools are developed, but these mechanisms will be discussed in the next post.